Modelling the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on NTD programmes

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) will impact the progress of neglected tropical disease (NTD) programmes. In response to COVID-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) advised that many NTD surveys, active case finding activities and mass treatment campaigns should be postponed. Support for prompt diagnosis, treatment, and essential vector control should also continue where possible.

It is essential that we understand if these interruptions will erode previous gains and, therefore, what can be done to prevent or make up for increases in transmission or resurgence.

This webinar describes mathematical modelling analysis, across seven neglected tropical diseases, on how NTD programmes could be impacted by the interruption of interventions. The analysis is framed around three key questions:

• How much delay programmes can tolerate before they start seeing a negative impact in achieving the 2030 goals?
• In which settings will delay-related impacts be greatest?
• What remedial strategies can be implemented once programmes resume to mitigate the impact of delays?

The analyses presented are based on the transmission dynamics modelling frameworks previously developed by the NTD Modelling Consortium, which provide simulations under different transmission settings and a range of different intervention scenarios for each disease.