RSTMH Webinar: Modelling the Impact of COVID-19 Interruptions on NTD Programmes

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) had a significant impact on the progress of neglected tropical disease (NTD) programmes. In response, the World Health Organization (WHO) advised that many NTD surveys, active case-finding activities, and mass treatment campaigns should be postponed. However, support for prompt diagnosis, treatment, and essential vector control was encouraged to continue where possible.

It became essential to understand whether these interruptions would erode previous gains, and what could be done to prevent or compensate for increases in transmission or potential resurgence.

This webinar presented mathematical modelling analyses across seven neglected tropical diseases, exploring how NTD programmes were likely to be impacted by the interruption of interventions. The analysis was framed around three key questions:

• How much delay could programmes tolerate before seeing a negative impact on achieving the 2030 goals?
• In which settings would delay-related impacts be greatest?
• What remedial strategies could be implemented once programmes resumed, to mitigate the impact of delays?

The analyses were based on transmission dynamics modelling frameworks developed by the NTD Modelling Consortium, which simulated a range of transmission settings and intervention scenarios for each disease.